Predicted outcomeInstant estimate
RECOVERY
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Clinical Guidance — MV Hondius Andes Virus Patients
Days 1–4 · Prodrome
- →Measure CD8⁺ count, IL-6, IL-10 and platelets every day
- →Score chest X-ray infiltrate (0 = clear, 3 = severe)
- →Enter values in the triage tool at xvirus.org/hps/triage
- →If the Storm Risk Score exceeds 2.5 → transfer to HDU immediately
Days 5–9 · Treatment window
- →The virus is already clearing — antivirals will not help
- →The immune response is the threat now
- →IL-10 analogue: most effective single intervention (−40% peak lung damage)
- →Add reduced-dose corticosteroid immunosuppression
- →ECMO as bridge if lung function deteriorates
Key message
- →Both mild and fatal cases clear the virus by day 6
- →Death is caused by the immune system, not the virus
- →Outcome is determined in the 5–9 day window
- →Do not wait for respiratory failure to act